Iwasan si Esberly

Ang Suliranin sa #10

Talagang malinaw: kung mailalabas si Esberly para sa Houston Rockets sa posisyon #10, huwag silang i-draft. Hindi dahil kulang ang galing niya—ang kanyang athleticism ay elite—but dahil ang kanyang desisyon ay hindi sumasalamin sa modernong NBA system. Mula sa aking pagsusuri sa higit pa sa 15,000 minuto gamit ang R at Python, nakita ko ito: mataas na risgo pero mababa ang situational IQ.

Pagbabahagi ng Ball vs. Pagmamay-ari

Ang highlight niya ay parang nasa ibang mundo—spinning crossovers, dunks na nagrerebelde sa gravity. Pero kapag sinuri mo ang bawat possession mula college games niya, may nakakatakot na resulta: 38% ng mga shot ay solo o one-on-one—even when teammates are open.

Tignan ang Jalen Green (26%) o Scottie Barnes (29%). Ang gap ay hindi statistic—it’s cultural. Masyadong high usage pero kulang sa basketball intelligence? Hindi innovation—self-indulgence na binabalot ng hype.

Ulit-ulit na Pattern ni Josh Jackson

Nag-analyze ako ng career arcs ng problema para rookie simula noong nasa Celtics ako. At si Esberly? Parang Josh Jackson:

• Masamang pagpili ng shot under pressure (74% eFG vs 63% sa clutch)
• Mababa ang assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8 AT/TO)
• Madalas mag-take technical foul (4 times)

Hindi ‘to minor quirks—red flags na naka-modelo ko para kay player fit risk assessment.

Kultura Bilang Metric?

Oo—ngayon ay quantifiable ang culture. The Rockets’ current roster ay umiiral dahil sa structure: unselfish ball movement, defensive rotations gamit ang HawkEye system. Pagsama-sama ng isang tao na madalas mag-away pagkatapos bumagsak? Bubuwalin yung feedback loop. Even Jalen Green—may flaws pero nakikinig at sumusunod sa sistema. Si Esberly? Parang walang gusto magtugot. Hindi personality—it’s systemic misalignment. Pansinin natin: team chemistry metrics—not vibes. Meron tayo dati dito. Data: teams with >22 PPG but APG lose 23% more playoff games dahil walang engagement ang role players. The Rockets cannot afford volatility right now—they need consistency, not flashiness bilang potential.

Trade Asset o Trojan Horse?

Kung i-draft nila siya? Oo—but only as trade bait for Durant-level assets later on. Kahit ganun: handle with care. Isang incident lang sa locker room under pressure could ruin months of planning using our advanced analytics frameworks from ESPN Analytics Hub (yes—we’re working on a podcast). The Suns would inherit trouble if they take him—they already have ego-driven dynamics between Booker and Ayton. Piling pa rin isa pang volatile edge-case? Reckless… unless you enjoy chaos as strategy—which I do not believe anyone in Houston wants right now. The better move is trading up or down—and getting depth instead of drama. The data says so.