Why the Rockets Should Avoid Esberly at Any Cost – A Data-Driven Warning

The Draft Dilemma: Talent vs. Toxicity

I’ve spent countless nights running regression models on player development trajectories. And when I saw Esberly’s raw stats—30% usage rate, 22 PPG in his final season—I had to pause. He looks like a steal at 10th overall.

But here’s the catch: raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Red Flags in the Data

Let’s talk about synergy metrics—the ones that measure how well a player fits into team systems. Esberly’s average off-ball movement efficiency? In the bottom 5% of NCAA players last season.

His turnover-to-assist ratio? Worse than Jerami Grant’s rookie year.

And his defensive positioning? Poor spacing, erratic rotations—like he doesn’t trust teammates to cover ground.

This isn’t just bad habits; it’s behavioral data pointing toward poor decision-making under pressure.

The Jalen Green Comparison That Matters

People keep comparing him to Jalen Green—”he’s flashy, he can score.” But Green was coached through every misstep early on. He had structure.

Esberly? No such framework visible in his college film or post-game interviews.

When asked about team defense during a presser last January, he said: “I’ll guard whoever I feel like.” That quote alone should’ve ended any draft hopes for him—at least from a system-building standpoint.

Why This Is Worse Than Whithmire

Whithmire was loud, disrespectful—but coachable in small doses. His numbers improved after coaching staff intervened.

Esberly? He didn’t learn from mistakes because he didn’t acknowledge them as mistakes. One game where he missed eight free throws and then said “they were all contested”… seriously?

That kind of cognitive dissonance doesn’t fix itself with talent alone.

The Real Risk: A Trade Asset or a Firestorm?

certain teams might see him as a trade chip—especially if they’re building around stars like Durant or Booker. But let me be blunt:

You don’t trade your future for someone who destabilizes locker rooms by design.

The Suns are already dealing with roster tension; adding a player who ignores defensive schemes and demands ball control could turn Phoenix into Dallas 2019 all over again—chaos masked as ‘star power’

The data says no one wants to play with him—not even when it’s advantageous for him personally.