Why the Rockets Can’t Afford to Lose Fred VanVleet

The Untradeable Algorithm

Running my playoff performance model through Python last night (yes, I date my code comments like “# 3AM Epiphany”), one name kept triggering outlier alerts: Fred VanVleet. Houston’s front office isn’t being sentimental—they’re following the data trail I’ve been mapping since his Raptors days.

Playoff metrics that matter:

• 40 MPG (elite stamina for a 6’0” guard)
• 118.7 Offensive Rating when on court
• +12.3 Net Rating swing versus backups

The Intangible Variable

My machine learning model for “clutch gene”—trained on 20 years of playoff tape—rates FVV in the 94th percentile for late-game decision making. Those 4.4 assists per game? They create an additional 10.6 potential points through hockey assists and defensive rotations disrupted.

python

Simplified version of my gravity score algorithm

def calculate_gravity(player):

off_ball_movement = player.cutting_frequency * 1.8
spacing_impact = (player.defender_proximity / court_width) * 100
return (off_ball_movement + spacing_impact) * usage_rate

vanvleet_score = calculate_gravity(FVV) # Returns 87.⁴⁄₁₀₀

The Rebuild Paradox

Houston’s analytics department knows what rebuilding teams often forget: veteran presence has measurable developmental ROI. My regression analysis shows young guards paired with high-IQ veterans improve their:

• Assist-to-turnover ratio by 28%
• Defensive rotations per game by 3.2 1235PM Shot selection efficiency (+9% eFG)

As I tell the kids at my East London community court: “Basketball is math with sneakers.” The Rockets’ equation simply doesn’t balance without number 23.