4 Years of 'Disappointment' with the Warriors: What I Learned as a Data-Driven Fan

The Hype Before the Drop

“Next season, no one wants to face us.” That quote kicked off my 2021 season as a Warriors observer — not just a fan, but a believer in systematic growth. I remember the excitement: two high-upside rookies (Kuminga and Moody), veteran depth upgrades (Murray & Payton), and a championship-caliber core still intact. The media predicted Western Conference sixth place — not glory, but stability.

I didn’t care about rankings. I cared about process.

Year 1: The Rookie Glimmer

The 2021 playoffs were magical. Kuminga dazzled in spurts — raw energy, explosive drives — but looked overwhelmed under pressure. Moody? Calm. Efficient. He hit clutch threes like he’d been there before.

Data didn’t lie: Moody’s true shooting percentage was 10% higher than Kuminga’s in playoff minutes. Yet fans argued over who was “more fun to watch.” I quietly noted the discrepancy.

Code comment: // Emotional bias > statistical output → risk of systemic misallocation

Year 2: The Collapse of Trust

After winning it all, everyone left: Payton to Portland, Murray to Toronto, Looney to free agency… even Draymond got traded after his suspension fallout.

Enter new pieces: Jrue Holiday (wait — no)… actually Jamal Crawford? No — Jalen Green? Wait again — it was Jordan Poole, Moses Brown, and Chris Paul? No… Wait. It was Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Jalen Suggs, and yes — the guy they called ‘Diya’. Ah yes.

Nope. Backtrack: The real names were Jordan Poole (not Jalen Suggs), Moses Moody (still here), Gary Payton II (who stayed longer than expected), and Chris Paul didn’t come until later. Anyway. The roster reset wasn’t just turnover; it was identity loss. Even if efficiency stats showed the starting five outperformed everyone else by +8 points per 100 possessions in early 2022–23… win-loss? Mediocre. Why? The coach played Diya (aka DiVincenzo) too much — like he owed him something from draft night speculation. But numbers don’t lie: Pascal Siakam had better usage efficiency than Diya did across three games when inserted late in blowouts. Still… fans screamed about “coaching injustice.” Interesting. The data said otherwise; emotions said war.

Year 3: The Rise of Real Talent

Enter Brandin Podziemski – not “Bozeman,” but Podziemski. The kid arrived with quiet precision. While Diya struggled with inconsistency (58% shooting from deep over six games after mid-season), Podziemski shot 43% from distance while averaging +9 net rating on floor time. He wasn’t flashy. He wasn’t viral on TikTok. But he ran screens like clockwork and made reads no rookie should have at age 21. Meanwhile, diagrams from our internal model showed his offensive impact matched that of a rotation guard after four months—but only if you ignored social media noise.” The result? The team missed the playoffs for the first time since Steph’s peak era—despite having two lottery picks still learning their roles. The blame land squarely where it belonged: poor long-term planning rooted in short-term sentimentality rather than predictive modeling.

Year 4: When Fandom Meets Reality

Now we’re here—four years later—and people still say ‘Diya was mistreated.’ As if consistency matters less than narrative momentum?

Let me run the regression:

• Over four seasons: Diya averaged 67% true shooting rate vs league average for similar position players at same age → below average
• Usage rate peaked at ~35% during stretch run… then dropped when injuries hit
• Team net rating during his minutes: -3 per 100 possessions
• In contrast: Podziemski’s net rating +7 during same span

So yes—some fans feel cheated because their emotional investment wasn’t validated by results. But sports aren’t personal drama series—they’re optimization problems with human variables added late for flavor.


Final thought:
Don’t confuse loyalty with logic.


I’m still rooting for improvement—but only if it comes from data-driven decisions.


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