Why Rockets and Mavericks Are Overrated in the West: A Data-Driven Reality Check

The Myth of Elite Status

I’ve been analyzing NBA stats for years — from player efficiency to team defensive metrics — and one thing keeps bugging me: how badly some teams are overvalued. The latest buzz? That the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are contenders on par with the Thunder or Nuggets. Nope.

Let’s be real: they’re not even in the same league. Not yet.

Data Doesn’t Lie

When you dive into advanced metrics like Net Rating, Defensive Win Shares, and offensive consistency (using 2023–24 season data), you see a clear hierarchy.

The Thunder and Nuggets sit at +7+ net rating with elite spacing, ball movement, and rim protection. Meanwhile, both the Mavs and Rockets hover around +1 to +3 — solid for middle-of-the-pack but far from elite.

And yes, I’m factoring in injuries. Even when healthy, their roster construction doesn’t match up.

The Hype Machine Is Loud

Social media loves momentum stories — especially ones involving young stars or flashy trade moves. But here’s my take: hype doesn’t win championships.

The Mavs have Luka Dončić — yes, he’s incredible — but his supporting cast lacks depth in defense and rebounding. The Rockets? They’re still rebuilding around Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün. Great potential? Absolutely. A top-tier team now? No way.

This isn’t about disrespect; it’s about realism.

Where Do They Really Rank?

Even if we assume no offseason upgrades for Warriors or Lakers (which is unlikely), they remain second-tier contenders due to proven playoff experience and system execution.

The real battle isn’t between them vs. Mavs/Rockets… it’s between those two squads vs. everyone else in that middle group.

That includes teams like Kings, Timberwolves, Grizzlies — all with better shot creation than either Texas squad currently shows.

Final Thought: Respect Potential, Not Perceived Power

I love seeing underdogs rise. I believe in growth trajectories for young rosters like Houston’s. But let’s stop pretending they’re already elite just because they won 50 games or made a few highlight-reel plays.

Numbers don’t lie — neither does context. The truth is simple: we’ve got our tiers right now,

and until these teams show sustained excellence across all five phases of basketball (defense included), they stay where they belong—below the true powerhouses.