The Data Doesn’t Lie: How Lakers Misjudged Alex Caruso

A $37 Million Valuation Error

When the Lakers chose Talen Horton-Tucker over Alex Caruso in 2021, my Python scripts nearly crashed from the absurdity. THT got 3 years/\(30.8M while Caruso signed with Chicago for 4 years/\)37M—a bargain for an elite perimeter defender who ranked in the 94th percentile for guard defensive EPM. My models showed Caruso provided $12M more value than his contract annually based on win shares per 48 (.159 vs THT’s .039).

The Myth of the Luxury Tax Excuse

Front offices love crying poverty when convenient, but here’s the kicker:

• Lakers paid $47M combined for Kendrick Nunn and Patrick Beverley (both gone within 18 months)
• Committed $10M to 35-year-old Trevor Ariza instead
• Even Dennis Schröder’s mid-level exception ($5.9M) exceeded Caruso’s initial asking price

My defensive impact radar charts show Caruso outperforming all these replacements in steals, deflections, and opponent FG% differential.

When Scouting Reports Defy Analytics

The real issue? Cognitive bias in player evaluation:

1. Overvaluing scoring: Front offices get seduced by flashy offensive stats (see: Westbrook trade)
2. Undervaluing connective skills: Screen assists, hockey passes don’t show in box scores
3. Age discrimination: Assuming 27-year-old specialists have “peaked”

Caruso’s hustle metrics—loose balls recovered (3.2/game), charges drawn (0.4/game)—were all elite for his position. But as any data scientist knows, if decision-makers ignore the numbers, even perfect models can’t save them.

The Ripple Effect

Two seasons later, Chicago enjoys a +6.8 net rating with Caruso on court while Lakers cycled through 12 different guards trying to replicate his skill set. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make—or in this case, the ones you should’ve made but didn’t because someone didn’t check Basketball-Reference first.