Ranking the Top 6 Houston Rockets Players by Trade Value in 2024

The Methodology Behind the Madness

Let’s get this straight upfront - I’m not your typical hot take artist. As someone who builds shot-chart algorithms for ESPN, I evaluated these players through three lenses: current production (PER, LEBRON), contract value (years remaining/cost), and developmental upside (age/athleticism composite). All stats are courtesy of Second Spectrum tracking.

1. Amen Thompson (No Debate Here)

The 6’7” point guard leads my board with a 97th percentile steal rate among rookies. His 7-foot wingspan generates deflections most guards can’t, and his $9M/year rookie deal is theft. Skeptics question his shooting (29% from three), but his 68% finishing at the rim offsets it. Think early-career Jason Kidd with better hair.

2. Alperen Şengün (The Turkish Jokić)

Yes, his defense needs work (-1.2 Defensive RAPTOR). But a center averaging 21/9/5 on 60% TS% at age 21? His $3.5M salary through 2025 is criminal value. GM secret: He grades top-10 in post-up efficiency despite Houston’s spacing issues.

3. Jabari Smith Jr. (The Sleeper Asset)

Here’s where it gets spicy. Advanced metrics love his +3.1 defensive EPM (89th percentile for PFs), but scouts underrate his improved catch-and-shoot numbers (41% 3PT since ASB). At 20 years old with two cheap seasons left? That’s Moneyball gold.

Why Eason > Green?

I can hear Twitter raging already. Simple math: Tari Eason provides elite wing defense (3.4 stocks per36) at $3M/year through 2026, while Jalen Green’s -4.0 net rating hampers his market. Unless he makes that third-year leap, efficiency concerns (53% TS) depress his value.

The Wild Cards:

• Reed Sheppard: Unproven but that 42% college 3PT% glows in today’s NBA
• Cam Whitmore: Athleticism jumps off charts (98th percentile rim pressure), though decision-making lags
• Veteran reality check: FVV/Dillon Brooks have negative trade equity with their declining curves and $40M+ contracts

Data visualizations available on my Patreon showing each player’s trade value curve vs league peers.