76ers’ Gamble: Keeping the Big Three Together Despite Luxury Tax Risk

The 15-Game Experiment

I’ve spent countless nights running regression models on player synergy — and nothing in my dataset explains what we’re seeing with the 76ers’ core trio. Just 15 games together this season: 7 wins, 8 losses. A .467 winning percentage? That’s worse than average for a team that should be elite. Yet here they are — planning to keep it all intact next year.

It’s not just about desire; it’s about data integrity. The model doesn’t lie: when you drop two All-Stars into a rotation with only limited usage overlap, chemistry isn’t built overnight.

But here’s where logic meets emotion — and where even I pause.

Salary Math & The Second Tax Line

Let me show you something cold: keeping their current roster plus retaining the #3 pick adds $11.1M in future payroll capacity for 2025-26.

That pushes them perilously close to — or even over — the second luxury tax threshold. And yes, that means more cash flow out of pocket if they miss playoffs or underperform.

From a pure financial standpoint? This looks like emotional spending disguised as strategy.

Yet… there’s an argument in favor of patience. These aren’t just any players. They’re franchise pillars with proven ceilings under pressure.

Why Keep Them Together?

You don’t build dynasties by panicking after one injury-plagued season.

Embiid played 19 games; George logged 41; Maxey ran through pain for half of last year’s campaign. That’s not “bad health.” That’s sacrifice. And analytics has taught me one thing: loyalty matters when you’re measuring long-term commitment beyond stats.

In my analysis of similar rebuilds (looking at you, Warriors’ ‘Golden Era’ pivot), teams rarely succeed by dismantling momentum during recovery phases.

So is this gamble rational? Not entirely. But is it smart within context? Absolutely — especially if you believe in peak performance windows rather than short-term efficiency metrics alone.

The Data Isn’t Ready to Call It Quits Yet

My algorithms flag “high variance” when evaluating these three combined — meaning outcomes are unpredictable but potentially explosive if they finally stay healthy together.

And let me be honest: I’m not immune to hope either. As someone who once predicted Kawhi Leonard’s return timing using biometric tracking patterns… I know how much can change when time + health align.

This isn’t about ignoring red flags—it’s about waiting until those signs go from blinking red to green before making irreversible decisions.

If they hit full strength next year? The ceiling might still be gold-colored with purple trim (and maybe some subtle gold threads).

everyone knows what happens when franchises give up too soon—just look at Atlanta or Sacramento over recent years.. The real risk isn’t overspending—it’s undervaluing potential because we misread resilience as weakness.