2024 NBA Draft: How ESPN's Final Mock Draft Stacked Up Against Reality

ESPN’s 2024 Mock Draft Accuracy: A Data Geek’s Postmortem
The Top Tier Lockdown Let’s start by giving credit where it’s due - ESPN absolutely cooked with their top 4 predictions. Atlanta taking Risacher at #1 was about as predictable as a Giannis Eurostep. Washington grabbing Sarr at #2? My Python models had that at 87% probability. The real shocker was Houston actually sticking with Sheppard at #3 instead of trading down (though my defensive metrics suggest that might haunt them).
Where The Madness Began (Pick #5) Detroit’s selection of Holland over Buzelis sent the first shockwaves through the war room. My tracking data shows Buzelis’ wing defense grades were objectively superior, yet he tumbled to Chicago at #11. Meanwhile, Charlotte passing on Knecht for Salaun had me checking my Synergy database for corrupted files.
Steals and Head-Scratchers Portland doubling down on bigs by taking Clingan at #7 made analytical sense - their rim protection stats were league-worst last season. But San Antonio jumping on Salaun at #8 while Dillingham slid to Utah? That’s when I needed my stress ball. Speaking of sliding, Zach Edey dropping to Memphis at #17 might be the draft’s biggest value pick outside of Miami snagging Carrington five spots early.
Late Round Analytics Gems Philadelphia getting McCain exactly where projected (#16) shows how mature their analytics department has become. But Orlando taking Fudge at #18 over more efficient wings? Even my regression models can’t explain that one. The real darkhorse? Denver landing Holmes at #28 - his college rim-runner metrics fit Jokic’s passing like a glove.
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Hot comment (8)

“87% 확률이면 다 맞겠지”라고 생각했다가…
ESPN이 톱4 예측은 머신러닝처럼 완벽했지만(#1 리사셰는 잔니스 유로스텝만큼 뻔했죠), #5픽부터는 제 스트레스 볼만큼 찌그러졌네요.
데이터 반란 구간 (5~10픽) 디트로이트가 부젤리스 대신 홀랜드를 선택할 때는 시너지 데이터베이스가 고장난 줄 알았습니다. 클리블랜드는 왜 2미터 장신들을 수집하는지… 포틀랜드 농구대학원인가요?
이건 진짜 압권 멤피스가 #17에서 에데이를 잡은 건 ‘도둑 맞은 듯한 가치’였죠. 하지만 올랜도의 #18 픽은 회귀 분석으로도 설명 불가능한 미스터리입니다!
(제 파이썬 코드가 울고 있습니다) 여러분의 가장 의외의 픽은 무엇인가요? 📊🏀 #NBA드래프트 #데이터망신

ESPN کی پیشگوئی: کچھ ٹھیک، کچھ بالکل غلط!
ٹاپ 4 کے لیے ESPN نے بالکل درست پیشگوئی کی، لیکن پھر #5 پر ہی سب کچھ الٹا ہو گیا! ڈیٹرائٹ نے ہالینڈ کو بیوزیلس پر ترجیح دی - میری ڈیٹا شیٹس کو دیکھ کر میں نے اپنی آنکھوں پر یقین نہیں کیا!
سان انتونیو کا عجیب فیصلہ
سالاتن کو #8 پر لینا اور ڈلنگہم کو چھوڑ دینا؟ میں نے اپنا اسٹریس بال نکال لیا! 🤯
کمنٹس میں بتاؤ، تمہاری نظر میں سب سے بڑی غلطی کون سی تھی؟

NBA Draft 2024: ESPN, Tama Ka Ba?
Grabe, parang naglaro ng ‘Pinoy Henyo’ ang ESPN sa mock draft nila! Yung top 4 picks, okay pa. Pero nung dumating sa #5 pick - aba, parang nag-blindfold na sila! Detroit kunin si Holland instead kay Buzelis? Sana nag-Google muna sila ng stats!
At yung pag-slide ni Dillingham hanggang Utah? Kahit ako napasigaw ng ‘Ano ba yan!’ Pero salamat sa Memphis at binigyan ng chance si Edey - isang malaking (literally!) steal!
Team Managers Nagkakandakuba
Yung ibang teams mukhang gumamit ng magic 8-ball para pumili. Orlando kay Fudge? Baka nakita lang nila yung pangalan at gutom na sila! Tapos Denver - swerte mo naman Jokic, may bagong passing target ka na!
Kayo naman ESPN, next time baka pwede pahiram ng analytics team ko? Libre lang! 😂 #NBADraft2024 #ESPNMockDraft

ESPN کی پیشگوئی کا حال
ٹاپ 4 میں تو ESPN نے بالکل درست نشاندہی کی، جیسے جیاننس کا یورو اسٹیپ۔ لیکن پھر #5 سے ہی سب الجھن میں پڑ گئے! ڈیٹرائٹ نے ہالینڈ کو بزیلس پر ترجیح دی، حالانکہ میری ڈیٹا شیٹ کے مطابق بزیلس کا دفاع بہتر تھا۔
سب سے بڑا حیرت انگیز انتخاب
میمریس کا زیک ایڈے کو #17 پر لینا شاید پورے ڈرافٹ کا سب سے ذہین فیصلہ تھا۔ لیکن اورلینڈو کا فیصلہ؟ میرے ریگریشن ماڈلز بھی اسے سمجھ نہیں پائے!
آپ کا کیا خیال ہے؟ کیا ESPN کی یہ پیشگوئیاں آپ کو بھی ہنساتی ہیں؟ 😄

ESPN y su bola de cristal
¡Vaya sorpresa! ESPN casi pega el grito con los primeros 4 picks - lo de Risacher en Atlanta era más predecible que un mate de LeBron en fast break.
Donde empezó el caos
Pero en el pick #5, Detroit eligiendo a Holland sobre Buzelis me hizo revisar mis algoritmos… ¿habrá hackeado alguien mi base de datos?
Robos y locuras
Lo de Edey cayendo al #17 es el robo del siglo, aunque Orlando tomando a Fudge en el #18 sigue siendo un misterio que ni mis ecuaciones pueden resolver.
¿Ustedes qué piensan? ¿Fue mejor este mock draft que las predicciones del horóscopo?

ESPN এর জাদু নাকি অদৃশ্য বল?
টপ ৪ পিক ঠিক ছিল, কিন্তু তারপরই শুরু হলো মহাঅরাজকতা! ডেট্রয়েটের হোল্যান্ড পিকটা দেখে আমার পাইথন মডেলও চিৎকার করে উঠল। শিকাগোতে বুজেলিসের পতন দেখে মনে হচ্ছিল সিনার্জি ডাটাবেসে ভুল আছে নাকি!
স্যান আন্তোনিওর ‘স্ট্যাটস অ্যাটাক’
সলাউনকে ৮ নম্বরে নেওয়া দেখে আমার স্ট্রেস বলটা ফেটে গেল! উটাহের জন্য ডিলিংহাম স্লাইড করছে আর এডে মেমফিসে চলে গেল ১৭-তে - এটা আসলেই ড্রাফ্টের সবচেয়ে বড় চমক!
[ইমোজি: 🤯]
কমেন্টে জানাও কে তোমার মতে সবচেয়ে বড় ‘স্টিল’ ছিল?

Топ-4 угадали, а дальше…
ESPN точно знали топ-4 пиков – это было предсказуемо, как штрафной ЛеБрона. Но начиная с 5-го номера их симулятор драфта явно перегрелся!
Детройт выбрал Холланда вместо Бузелиса? Даже мои алгоритмы плачут в углу. А Шарлотта, пропустив Кнехта… Может, у них сломался Synergy?
Филадельфия и Денвер – молодцы, играют по науке. Но Орландо с выбором Фаджа… Ребята, вы вообще stats видели?
P.S. Мемфис с Эди на 17-м – кража века! Кто согласен – лайкните 😉
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