The Kuminga Conundrum: When Potential Clashes With Reality

As someone who tracks every Warriors game through advanced stats (yes, even during Lakers off-nights), Jonathan Kuminga’s four seasons in Golden State represent one of the NBA’s most frustrating developmental cases. Let’s break it down year-by-year with cold, hard numbers:

Rookie Red Flags (2021-22)

Kuminga’s -4.7 net rating in garbage time was worse than 94% of lottery picks since 2015. Andre Iguodala wasn’t wrong when criticizing the coaching staff for “wanting both development and wins” - especially when film showed Kuminga literally walking during late-game possessions while Jordan Poole hustled.

The False Hope Season (2022-23)

When Andrew Wiggins took personal leave, Kuminga got 12 starts… and the Warriors went 4-8. His 112.3 defensive rating as a starter would’ve ranked last among all SFs. Those viral “two missed free throws per fourth quarter” clips? Statistically accurate - he shot 58% from the line in clutch moments.

Media Wars & Misplaced Priorities (2023-24)

The PR team earned their paycheck managing Kuminga’s public complaints about playing time. Here’s what they couldn’t fix: his league-worst 0.43 assist-to-turnover ratio among forwards. Meanwhile, Brandin Podziemski - another rookie - posted superior rebounding numbers at 6’4” than Kuminga at 6’7”.

Verdict: Addition by Subtraction

The advanced metrics agree:

• Win Shares/48: 0.078 (below replacement level)
• Defensive EPM: -1.7 (bottom 15% of forwards)
• Clutch TS%: 51.3% (league avg: 58.1%)

Golden State doesn’t need another project needing minutes. They need contributors who understand their system isn’t built for stat-padding. As Draymond Green might say: “The film don’t lie.”